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An Integrated Modeling Approach for Predicting Potential Epidemics of Bacterial Blossom Blight in Kiwifruit under Climate Change
Plant Pathol. J. 2019;35:459-472
Published online October 1, 2019
© 2019 The Korean Society of Plant Pathology.

Kwang-Hyung Kim1* and Young Jin Koh2

1APEC Climate Center, Busan 48050, Korea
2Department of Plant Medicine, College of Life Science and Natural Resources, Sunchon National University, Suncheon 57922, Korea
Correspondence to: Phone) +82-51-745-3980, FAX) +82-51-745-3949
E-mail) kh.kim@apcc21.org
ORCID
Kwang-Hyung Kim
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3265-5899

Handling Editor : Kim, Ki Woo
Received May 15, 2019; Revised July 25, 2019; Accepted July 25, 2019.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0) which permits unrestricted noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
The increasing variation in climatic conditions under climate change directly influences plant-microbe interactions. To account for as many variables as possible that may play critical roles in such interactions, the use of an integrated modeling approach is necessary. Here, we report for the first time a local impact assessment and adaptation study of future epidemics of kiwifruit bacterial blossom blight (KBB) in Jeonnam province, Korea, using an integrated modeling approach. This study included a series of models that integrated both the phenological responses of kiwifruit and the epidemiological responses of KBB to climatic factors with a 1 km resolution, under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Our results indicate that the area suitable for kiwifruit cultivation in Jeonnam province will increase and that the flowering date of kiwifruit will occur increasingly earlier, mainly due to the warming climate. Future epidemics of KBB during the predicted flowering periods were estimated using the Pss-KBB Risk Model over the predicted suitable cultivation regions, and we found location-specific, periodic outbreaks of KBB in the province through 2100. Here, we further suggest a potential, scientifically-informed, long-term adaptation strategy using a cultivar of kiwifruit with a different maturity period to relieve the pressures of future KBB risk. Our results clearly show one of the possible options for a local impact assessment and adaptation study using multiple models in an integrated way.
Keywords : adaptation, integrated modeling, kiwifruit, Korea, local impact assessment


October 2019, 35 (5)
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